So the loosing streak for the Congress continues………….. latest one is Karnataka which was once it’s stronghold.
It has been two years since they last won a state election!
It has been two years since they last won a state election!
I wonder what has happened since last two years .Of course congress has been doing all the right things at the centre .OBC reservation, NREGS, Farm loan waiver the list is quite impressive..Their governance has been top class at the centre. It is then puzzling as to why the elction gods have been at the other end for them.
I think there are no easy answers. Some of them are clear and some of them are not.
Let’s understand the Vote bank of congress
SC/ST and Muslims ...
SC/ST are moving away from the congress as they find attractive options like the BSP .BSP may not be successful outside UP , but what is pinching congress is that the votes are getting divided.
Ther muslims have not come back as they desired.
Poll and campaign management
What is amazing is the fact that vote bank of congress is not translationg into seats , whereas it is for others.
The congress has this policy of not projecting a Prime Minster or Chief Ministerial candidate.This is a tradition that has been created to mainatain the hold of the so called “ High Command” so once they win they can impose any candidate that they like. This is now proving to be counterproductive.Imagine you do a project successfully in your organisation and the booty of the success goes to someone who has not done anything.You’ll simply quit .Now apply this formula to Congress . The state level poll managers neither seems have the right power nor the incentive to perform as they are not sure that they’ll get the benefit. This needs to change . Once the right people have the right incentives the results will follow.
The campaign management seems to focus on a few people like Sonia Gandhi and Rahul and not from the state leaders. This is also having a negative impact.Local issues it seems have been forgotten and big ticket issues are being addressed which do not have much of a mass appeal.
Basically it seems that opponents are having a stronger desire than congress in campaign management.
The Umbilical Cord
The Nehru/Gandhi cord is a as much a liability as an asset as there is noone who can speak freely and fairly against the miastakes of the leadership . Hence mistakes are being repeated .
There is something in Congress favour:
The congress is hopefully learing from each failure and they may not repeat the mistake in general elections.
Anti incumbancy in states where elections are going to be conducted is in congress's favour.
Vote back has not shrunk much . However it is not translating into seats as mentioned earlier . This translation can be done if good tactics are applied.
Momentum against congress may actually turn in their favour as negative votes are cast in their favour.
3 comments:
Dear Tushar, many policies of the government are not good governance but only vote bank politics.
- Take the case of the Reservation policy. It has been done hastily. No good studies on real % of OBCs in population. No upper cap on the limit of benefits (e.g. no reservation after 1/2 generations etc). Government's support to the creamy layer. Inability to scale good institutes like IIT, etc. No control over basic education.
- Farm loan waiver is another classic example of vote bank politics. The benefits will not reach the most needed place like Vidarbha. Instead of working on the root clauses like seeds, they are just curing the symptoms, which is clearly not enough.
- Inflation has gone up
- No clear party position on any issue e.g. foreign relations ( Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri lanka), terrorism, internal security (e.g. Raj Thackeray), naxalism, SEZs (e.g. Nandigram)
- Minority appeasement policies - by giving useless and foolish comments after terrorist attacks.
- A weak prime minister.
- As you pointed out, the dynasty is the biggest problem of this party and they will never accept it.
- They don't know how to form and maintain coalitions.
I am sure and very hopeful that the party should get a big drubbing in the coming general elections. ITS TIME FOR A CHANGE :-)
Cheers,
- Tosh
Dear Ashutosh,
You seem to be congress hater :(!
To answer to some of your questions :
OBC reservation will not be a negative for the congress . In fact they lost OBC votebank when they opposed it in 90's during VP's time.
Farmer loan waiver may not be the best of solutions for farmer's problems , but it may just bring in the required votes.
Inflation is a worldwide phenomenon and thankfully we have very competent people to deal with it. For a government hell bent on contating inflation , there's a easy fromula - stiffle growth , which happened in late 90's and sent Indian economy in tailspin for half a decade .Thnakfully this govenment is not doing it.
There cannot be a clear cut foreign policy for any country as it needs to change with time :) and that's the best policy.
Although dynasty is a problem it is source of strength for Congress as well
I think we have got a very average home minister.
We do not have a weak PM.
Congress is a better coalition manager than BJP.
There's still a lot of time for eneral elections .As said in Indian politics a week is a long enough time.
About the weaknesses of our PM, look at this link. http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/jun/10oil11.htm
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