Thursday, August 14, 2008

Hum Hai Na - ICICI Bank

Hum Hai Na ( we are there for you) - that is the customer service theme of ICICI Bank and I had quite an experience of that recently .

The bank sent me a debit card for a replacement last year which I lost .I requested for a new card online sometime in February this year for which the bank charged 200+ Rs upfront. The bank asked for e mail id and mobile no upfront for logging the call.

When I did not receive the card till April , I decided to complain. I got an e mail response that the courier has returned because I was not available at home and that I need to call the courier via the call centre . Now ICICI Bank call centers and their IVR menu is the last thing that I want to turn to as on an average it takes 15 minutes to half an hour to talk to an agent. I waited and again complained after a fortnight. This time the response was that the card has been deposited in the bank branch and I should collect it from there. I simply refused this as I wanted the card to be delivered to my home.

A fortnight passed and I again complained .This time the response was that the card has been destroyed as nobody collected it.I was really annoyed .The bank has taken a service charged , did not deliver the service and got the card destroyed unilaterally without making any attempt to contact me .Why has the bank taken my mobile no then?

I complained again and response this time was that the card cannot be delivered as my pin code is out of service area. I was really turned up now and finally reluctantly decided to call ICICI Bank call centre. Their response was that they cannot send the card by courier as the pin code is not serviceable and that they are sending it by post instead which may take a fortnight. This after I threatened the bank that I'll complain to RBI , Indian banking regulator. The other point is that I do not buy this not serviceable pin code theory as I have received courier and other letters from the bank itself. Moreover I live in a prominent locality.

Finally after ten days it was party time for me as I received the debit card .The joy was however short lived.

Among the plethora of letters along with the card , there was a letter mentioning that the card needs to be activated .Further I could expect a PIN in ' next seven days' for the card which I never received .As per the letter there are two ways to activate the card: By submitting a form at the branch or through the call centre .

I decided to call the call centre .The number of the call centre was mentioned in the letter.

This sequence for these calls is amazing and precisely why I want to avoid calling.

First Attempt

As per IVR , I apparently exceeded the maximum number of attempts .The call hung up.

Second Attempt

As per IVR , I again exceeded the maximum number of attempts .The call hung up.

Third Attempt

This time I was lucky as I could talk to an agent. He mentioned to me that the system was down and that he cannot check the details .He apologized and asked me to try after half an hour.

Fourth Attempt

I tried after one hour . I chose unblock for card option in IVR which I made out is equal to activation of a card .This is confusing.

The call centre executive mentioned that I have called wrong service number as that number is not for NRI services. I told him that this was the number mentioned in the letter sent to me and the agent apologized .He nevertheless connected me to the 'right agent'.

The 'right agent' took my details and told me shockingly I cannot activate the card through the call centre. When I confronted him and mentioned about the letter that I had received - he apologized. He also mentioned that I can request for password only when the card is activated. He suggested that I could write to the Manager online through my bank account and get the card activated which I did.

I'm now free to ask for another service from the bank - password for the card!

The net result - seven months after I requested for a debit card replacement , I have got a card which is not activated and I'm still awaiting for the password .

The effort and money ( my mobile bill) that I have to make for a simple service is really amazing. This in fact is not first of it’s kind experience.

ICICI Bank is anyways not known for service. If one visits a branch you can cool your heels for half an hour as you'll be in 'Q' for average that much time.

If you try call centre be sure of getting conflicting answers and frustration as you'll have to wait for at least 15-20 min to talk to an agent. Moreover no two agents will give the same response.

I'm moving away from the bank and will try for some others.


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Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Singh is King

I watched the Drama that unfolded on 22nd July in the Indian parliament , I was wondering the nuclar deal could have been completed at a later date as well.So what was the hurry? Was it a masterstroke or a gamble that paid off in the end for the Congress?


One thing is clear that the INC ( Congress) was working on for months together to garner support and that it was quite confident of winning the trust vote.


There can be various possibilities why congress chose to part ways with the Left and go for the trust vote .Some of them may be:

  • It wanted to divert attention from the 'price rise/inflation issue'. The issue had to be dragged for weeks together and should be substantial enough
  • It was waiting for the right time and allies to jettison the Left . It got the allies and the issue.
  • It wanted opposition to split ranks so that it can gain some allies before the election.
  • It hoped that it can hype the achievement and hope to gain some votes in incoming elections.
  • Dr.Singh wanted to leave behind a big ticket achievement for himself as his legacy . This of course assuming that the government thinks that it has little hope to win the next election
  • The congress being the core Left opposition party in states ruled by them did not want to go to elections with the Left and wanted to carve out an identity of itself before the elections.
  • It was impossible to run the government with the left and July was the right time to jettison them and do what congress always wanted . As there can be only one no trust motion in a session the government was sure that elections would not be called early , at least not in 2008.

For a person who has been ridiculed as ' weakest Prime Minister ' by the opposition ,Dr. Singh has proved that he's exactly opposite. I never had any doubts about tenacity of a person who stirred India clear in early 90's financial mess and opened economy in face of stiff opposition. I think his soft speak and mild manners have been taken for as weakness. I do not think that there is any example in India's history of such a gamble by any PM.

The real reason may be clear in the future .

Opposition Parties

BJP - They opposed the deal just for the sake of it . This is going to go against them . The deal no doubt is good for the country.I'm really disappointed by their attitude as India's opposition party.


What happens next?


Kick start of the reforms process .Expect some disinvestments and administrative measures and if the government is bold enough some legislations as well. Remember the first substantial phase of the reforms in early 90's was carried out in flat 100 days . Government has the time to carry out reforms that it wants.

Sunday, July 06, 2008

Journey of $ from Bretton Woods and Beyond

1930

till WWII - 'Begger thy neighbour' policies .Rampant devaluation of currencies to make exports cheaper .

1941 Atlanic Charter , precursor to the Bretton Woods

1945 End WWII and Brewtton Woods agreement signed

The Bretton Woods system of monetary management established the rules for commercial and financial relations among the world's major industrial states
The chief features of the Bretton Woods system were an obligation for each country to adopt a monetary policy that maintained the exchange rate of its currency within a fixed value—plus or minus one percent—in terms of gold and the ability of the IMF to bridge temporary imbalances of payments.

Throughout the war, the United States envisaged a postwar economic order in which the U.S. could penetrate markets that had been previously closed to other currency trading blocs, as well as to expand opportunities for foreign investments for U.S. corporations by removing restrictions on the international flow of capital. Without a strong European market for U.S. goods and services, most policymakers believed, the U.S. economy would be unable to sustain the prosperity it had achieved during the war.

U.S. allies—economically exhausted by the war—accepted this leadership. They needed U.S. assistance to rebuild their domestic production and to finance their international trade; indeed, they needed it to survive.
Before the war, the French and the British were realizing that they could no longer compete with U.S. industry in an open marketplace. During the 1930s, the British had created their own economic bloc to shut out U.S. goods. Churchill did not believe that he could surrender that protection after the war, so he watered down the Atlantic Charter's "free access" clause before agreeing to it.
A system of fixed exchange rates managed by a series of newly created international institutions using the U.S. dollar (which was a gold standard currency for central banks) as a reserve currency was set up.The strength of the U.S. economy, the fixed relationship of the dollar to gold ($35 an ounce), and the commitment of the U.S. government to convert dollars into gold at that price made the dollar as good as gold. In fact, the dollar was even better than gold: it earned interest and it was more flexible than gold.
After the end of World War II, the U.S. held $26 billion in gold reserves, of an estimated total of $40 billion (approx 65%).The design of the Bretton Woods System was that nations could only enforce gold convertibility on the anchor currency—the United States’ dollar. Gold convertibility enforcement was not required, but instead, allowed. Nations could forgo converting dollars to gold, and instead hold dollars. Rather than full convertibility, it provided a fixed price for sales between central banks.

1946 - Marshall Plan

The Marshall Plan was the program of massive economic aid given by the United States to favored countries in Western Europe for the rebuilding of capitalism1947-58 Implememntation of Marshall planFrom 1947 until 1958, the U.S. deliberately encouraged an outflow of dollars, and, from 1950 on, the United States ran a balance of payments deficit with the intent of providing liquidity for the international economy. From 1948 to 1954 the United States gave 16 Western European countries $17 billion in grants.

1960- Tiffin's Dilemma

In 1960 Robert Triffin noticed that holding dollars was more valuable than gold was because constant U.S. balance of payments deficits helped to keep the system liquid and fuel economic growth. What would later come to be known as Triffin's Dilemma was predicted when Triffin noted that if the U.S. failed to keep running deficits the system would lose its liquidity, not be able to keep up with the world's economic growth, and, thus, bring the system to a halt. But incurring such payment deficits also meant that, over time, the deficits would erode confidence in the dollar as the reserve currency created instability. In the 1960s and 70s, important structural changes eventually led to the breakdown of international monetary management. One change was the development of a high level of monetary interdependence. The stage was set for monetary interdependence by the return to convertibility of the Western European currencies at the end of 1958 and of the Japanese yen in 1964. Convertibility facilitated the vast expansion of international financial transactions, which deepened monetary interdependence.By 1968, the attempt to defend the dollar at a fixed peg of $35/ounce, the policy of the Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson administrations, had become increasingly untenable. Gold outflows from the U.S. accelerated, and despite gaining assurances from Germany and other nations to hold gold, the profligate fiscal spending of the Johnson administration had transformed the "dollar shortage" of the 1940s and 1950s into a dollar glut by the 1960s. In 1967, the IMF agreed in Rio de Janeiro to replace the tranche division set up in 1946. Special Drawing Rights were set as equal to one U.S. dollar, but were not usable for transactions other than between banks and the IMF. Nations were required to accept holding Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) equal to three times their allotment, and interest would be charged, or credited, to each nation based on their SDR holding. The original interest rate was 1.5%.

1971 - Collapse of Bretton Woods

The early 1970s, as the Vietnam War accelerated inflation, the United States as a whole began running a trade deficit (for the first time in the twentieth century). The crucial turning point was 1970, which saw U.S. gold coverage deteriorate from 55% to 22%. This, in the view of neoclassical economists, represented the point where holders of the dollar had lost faith in the ability of the U.S. to cut budget and trade deficits.In 1971 more and more dollars were being printed in Washington, then being pumped overseas, to pay for government expenditure on the military and social programs. In the first six months of 1971, assets for $22 billion fled the U.S. In response, on August 15, 1971, Nixon unilaterally imposed 90-day wage and price controls, a 10% import surcharge, and most importantly "closed the gold window," making the dollar inconvertible to gold directly, except on the open market. Unusually, this decision was made without consulting members of the international monetary system or even his own State Department, and was soon dubbed the "Nixon Shock".The shock of August 15 was followed by efforts under U.S. leadership to develop a new system of international monetary management. Throughout the fall of 1971, there was a series of multilateral and bilateral negotiations of the Group of Ten seeking to develop a new multilateral monetary system.On 17 and 18 December 1971, the Group of Ten, meeting in the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, created the Smithsonian Agreement which devalued the dollar to $38/ounce, with 2.25% trading bands, and attempted to balance the world financial system using SDRs alone. It was criticized at the time, and was by design a "temporary" agreement. It failed to impose discipline on the U.S. government, and with no other credibility mechanism in place, the pressure against the dollar in gold continued.This resulted in gold becoming a floating asset, and in 1971 it reached $44.20/ounce, in 1972 $70.30/ounce and still climbing. By 1972, currencies began abandoning even this devalued peg against the dollar, though it took a decade for all of the industrialized nations to do so. In February 1973 the Bretton Woods currency exchange markets closed, after a last-gasp devaluation of the dollar to $44/ounce, and reopened in March in a floating currency regime.

1973

The denomination of oil in dollars after the 1973 Middle East oil crisis.
1974
US manages to save $ as the only currency of trade for Oil.

1979

Second Oil Shock

1989

Emergence of deregulated global financial markets after the Cold War that made cross-border flow of funds routine.
A number of economists (e.g. Doole, Folkerts-Landau and Garber) have referred to the system of currency relations which evolved after 2001, in which currencies, particularly the Chinese renminbi (yuan), remained fixed to the US Dollar as Bretton Woods II. The argument is that a system of pegged currencies is both stable and desirable, a notion that causes considerable controversy.
"Bretton Woods II", unlike its predecessor, is not codified and does not represent any kind of a multilateral agreement. It contains the following key elements:
The United States imports considerable amounts of goods, particularly from East Asian export-oriented economies such as China, Japan and various other Southeast-Asian countries.
Since China and Japan don't have much demand for U.S.-produced goods, United States runs large trade deficits with both countries.
Under normal circumstances, trade deficits would correct themselves through depreciation of the dollar and appreciation of the yen and the renminbi. However, Chinese and Japanese governments are interested in keeping their currencies low with respect to the dollar to keep their products competitive. To achieve that, they are forced to buy large quantities of U.S. treasury securities with freshly-printed money.
Similar mechanisms work in the Eurozone with the euro and its satellite currency (Swiss franc). The Eurozone is somewhat less coupled to the U.S. economy, so the euro has been allowed to appreciate considerably with respect to the dollar.

2007

As of 2007, $ still has the largest share (65.7%) of foreign reserve holdings, with the euro some distance behind at 25.2%.However since 2000, the dollar share is falling and the euro share is rising, though the trend is very gentle.

Monday, May 26, 2008

Loosing streak for the Grand Old Party

So the loosing streak for the Congress continues………….. latest one is Karnataka which was once it’s stronghold.
It has been two years since they last won a state election!

I wonder what has happened since last two years .Of course congress has been doing all the right things at the centre .OBC reservation, NREGS, Farm loan waiver the list is quite impressive..Their governance has been top class at the centre. It is then puzzling as to why the elction gods have been at the other end for them.

I think there are no easy answers. Some of them are clear and some of them are not.

Let’s understand the Vote bank of congress

SC/ST and Muslims ...
SC/ST are moving away from the congress as they find attractive options like the BSP .BSP may not be successful outside UP , but what is pinching congress is that the votes are getting divided.
Ther muslims have not come back as they desired.

Poll and campaign management

What is amazing is the fact that vote bank of congress is not translationg into seats , whereas it is for others.
The congress has this policy of not projecting a Prime Minster or Chief Ministerial candidate.This is a tradition that has been created to mainatain the hold of the so called “ High Command” so once they win they can impose any candidate that they like. This is now proving to be counterproductive.Imagine you do a project successfully in your organisation and the booty of the success goes to someone who has not done anything.You’ll simply quit .Now apply this formula to Congress . The state level poll managers neither seems have the right power nor the incentive to perform as they are not sure that they’ll get the benefit. This needs to change . Once the right people have the right incentives the results will follow.
The campaign management seems to focus on a few people like Sonia Gandhi and Rahul and not from the state leaders. This is also having a negative impact.Local issues it seems have been forgotten and big ticket issues are being addressed which do not have much of a mass appeal.
Basically it seems that opponents are having a stronger desire than congress in campaign management.

The Umbilical Cord

The Nehru/Gandhi cord is a as much a liability as an asset as there is noone who can speak freely and fairly against the miastakes of the leadership . Hence mistakes are being repeated .

There is something in Congress favour:

The congress is hopefully learing from each failure and they may not repeat the mistake in general elections.

Anti incumbancy in states where elections are going to be conducted is in congress's favour.
Vote back has not shrunk much . However it is not translating into seats as mentioned earlier . This translation can be done if good tactics are applied.
Momentum against congress may actually turn in their favour as negative votes are cast in their favour.




Saturday, May 10, 2008

The PetroDollar Business

Last week I read the news of Iran moving it's crude oil trade completely to Euro and Yen and exited Dollar. This is indeed a predictable news and was coming for sometime now.

Lets understand why.

The dollar derives it's strength and demand from being the base currency for International Trade ( and sometimes national as well!) across the world and main contributor to this is crude oil trade. US itself runs huge trade deficits ( now at record Levels) which essentially means it buys more goods and services than it sells. Part of this deficit( and hence US consumption) is funded by the rest of the world itself in the form of purchase of US treasury bonds and capital and other investments.The rest of the world also maintains $ as Forex Reserves .The world $ Currency reserves are estimated at about 10,000 billion.

Hence an important fact: The rest of the world needs to sell goods and services to the US and it not necesasary for the US to reciprocate the same . It can simply do by printing Dollar . The rest of the World needs to maintain the vaule of $ as they have invested heavily in terms if $ bonds , reserves and other $ assets. This means US literally gets a lot of products and services for free . This is an amazing free Lunch that every Great Power aspires to have.
Of couse govermenets and monetory authorities across rest of the world know about this fact.

Now imagine rest of the world for some reason stops trading Crude Oil in Dollars. The demand for Dollar slumps so does the value of the dollar .As the Dollar value dips ,more countries move their curde oil trade on other currencies which effects further sharper slump in Dollar.

Such doomsday scenario thinking has prompted the hostile nations (to US) like Iran to move oil trade to Euro and Yen.( Many infact attribute this kind of fear led US to undertake it's Iraq adventure as late Saddam planned to move Iraq's oil trade to Euro before US invaded Iraq and there's a lot of credibility to such an argument.) This may prompt Saudi Arebia and Russia and many others to follow suit . The only issue here whether Euro/Yen or any other currency have the mattle to prove effective alternative to Dollar.I think Euro has a much better chance given the size and stability of the European Economy.
Most probaly if dollar slumps , it's be a gradual process over years and not a sudden phenomenon.

We in fact have the example of UK which lost it's superpower status in 20th century as it was unable to maintain the value of Pound sterling after second world war as the demand for Pound slumped after Bretton Woods Accord.

Thursday, March 06, 2008

The Big Budget

I eagerly watched 08-09 budget this year and in some sense there was no surprise in it.
The farmer loan waiver was widely expected. What was really interesting was the fact that government wants to complete the waiver by June 08 .Considering the fact that elections are not possible during monsoon season , it seems that with all probability elections are due in September - October 08 . This will also be a period short enough to milk the loan waiver to farmers - the feel good factor. I also think that this move was planned much in advance with an eye on elections . The hard work was done in last few years .Of course ever government consciously works in first 3-4 years to give something substantial and visible in the late years of it's governance. This tactic is not new. I feel the execution has been done very well by this government . No doubt congress feels that they have given death blow to the opposition's electoral chances with the waiver.
I liked the approach of tackling ( the so called) slowdown by stimulating consumption through reduction in direct taxes and sales tax. The sixth pay commission bonanza will be an extra .This along will relief to farmers will also put more money in the hands of people what'll further give Phillip to consumption. However rapid interest rate cut will be difficult as a result.
The tax buoyancy in last three years has been remarkable - about 40% annually. The Tax-GDP ratio however is still very poor at about 13%. There are countries in the world where the ratio is as high as 50% .I however feel that the ratio should be in the range of 25-30% for India if taxes are paid properly. The only solution to this tax evasion is heavy dose of IT( information technology) for tax administration . The introduction of GST will also help simplify the system .But all these measures take time and the government is conscious of this fact.

If this tax buoyancy continues for the next two three years then I believe the government should be in a position to provide substantial form of social security like guaranteed annual income to the farmers , something like minimum salary of say 5000 per year to start with. This'll go a long way in preventing the human tragedy that has unfolded in the past few years in the rural hinterland of the country.

Friday, January 04, 2008

Aviation Boom in India

When I returned to India some two months back , I got the real experience of the boom . I had the first hand account two years ago when I left India and then did not have a chance to experience the same as I was abroad.

The very first to strike is the fact that the tier II and III cities are better connected by the budget airlines. The second is the fact that the profile of the air traveller has changed a lot in last one decade. I remember I used to travel frequently then and air travle was considered as quite a luxury .The profile of air traveler was wealthy businessmen, high ranking PSU Officials or Private sector executives or rich people. For average people air travel was out of reach and people would be very afraid about their etiquettes at airport and during travel.

Come 2008 and I can see common man traveling with his family by air not only within India but abroad as well , something unthinkable a decade ago. Air travel is much cheaper now as compared a decade ago.

This is due to the business model of low cost/ no frill airlines which rely on :

· Higher load factor a harvesting kind of strategy ( low airfares if you book early , goes higher as the travel date nears)

· No frills
· Chance factor ( read overbooking )
· Innovative marketing strategies ( advertising on planes and sell as much as possible )
· High charges for all add on services
· Increased capacity of planes by removing business class and reducing legroom
· Cut corners? ( lets not think of this factor)

Will this happy phase continue ?

Well all the so called no frill airlines in India are in deep red .One reason is the rapid growth of these companies other being high fuel costs, very high taxes ( they are almost always higher than the airline tickets) , high salaries for the employees owing to the skills shortage ( though this is an issue with almost every industry in India) . Such Low costs are clearly not sustainable. Consolidation in the industry is the beginning of the price hike. But I think we can still expect 25-30% growth in the foreseeable future.

Some Positives for the Industry are :

Rising income levels
Better connectivity
Improvement in Infrastructure
Greater acceptability of air trave


Customer service:

Don’t expect much from no frills . I feel there is a great divide in terms of customer service across firms. As per my experience:

Air Deccan – very average , even cutting corners.

Indigo/ SpiceJet – Good

The infrastructure required for such a boom is simply inadequate , though I know that government is working on the same quite seriously .